© 2018 Yarrock Pty Ltd

WEATHER TRENDS

Rainfall from the years 2000 to 2014 compared to the long term rainfall from 1883 to 2014.

Key differences to the long term weather averages;

  • A 28% decline in annual rainfall of 122mm, from 428mm to 306mm

  • A 30% decline in growing season rainfall of 92mm, from 312mm to 220mm

  • A 13.15mm decrease in the average monthly Growing Season Rainfall from 44.57mm (long term average) to 31.42mm

  • The variation of rainfall between months has increased by 18%, from 30% to 48% indicating greater variation and extremes in rainfall

  • The crucial spring months of August and October have become significantly less reliable. August has gone from the most reliable rainfall month to the second least reliable rainfall month. Rainfall reliability has dropped by 11% to be a 40% chance of receiving average monthly rainfall

  • October rainfall reliability has declined by 7% to be a 40% chance of receiving average monthly rainfall. Of the whole year, it is equally (with June) the most variable month for rainfall

  • The most reliable month for rainfall is now November with a 53% chance of average or above average rainfall

 

2014 Key weather statistics

  • Mean maximum temperature; 21.7°C

  • Mean minimum temperature;   6.8°C

  • Average annual temperature;  14.8°C

  • Highest temperature; 45.1°C recorded 14 Jan 2014

  • Lowest temperature;   -2.3°C recorded 19 Sep 2014

  • Numbers of days equal to or greater than 32°C = 16

  • Number of days equal to or less than 0°C = 25, with 9 in Aug, 9 in Sep & 2 in Oct

  • Annual rainfall; 250.1mm with 196.3mm in the Growing season

  • Average monthly Growing season rainfall; 28.04mm

  • Number of days of rain over 0.2mm = 101, over 2mm = 36, over 20mm = 1

 

2015 Key weather statistics

  • Mean maximum temperature; 22.7°C

  • Mean minimum temperature;  7.9°C

  • Average annual temperature;  15.4°C

  • Highest temperature; 43.0°C recorded 2 Jan 2015

  • Lowest temperature;   -3.9°C recorded 31 Aug 2015

  • Numbers of days equal to or greater than 32°C = 54

  • Number of days equal to or less than 0°C = 18, 4 in Jun, 6 in Aug, 3 in Sep & 4 in Oct

  • Annual rainfall; 227.8mm with 143.2mm in the Growing season

  • Average monthly Growing season rainfall; 20.45mm

  • Number of days of rain over 0.2mm = 127, over 2mm = 29, over 20mm = 2

 

My conclusions;

Using the weather data that is available to me, it is quite apparent that we have entered into the driest recorded rainfall period in the last 130 years. Trends I have observed in my farm data line up with the observations reported by the BOM, and as such I am making management changes in response to the changing environmental conditions.